Historia wirtualna

	Instruction
	Create two coalitions ( the Red and the Blue). Choose countries from the lists ("Add to the Red" and "Add to the Blue"). Now you will see the result of the conflict in implicit year 1939. You may change the composition of a coalition by adding or subtracting countries in each coalition (use lists: "Add to /Subtract from the Red" and Add to /Subtract from the Blue"). At any time you may change the year of a conflict.
	Countries were able to create - and they created - coalitions. Potential of each coalition is always equal to the sum of the potentials of countries creating the coalition. Before you start the game check first if there were any other historical factors besides those that directly affected the conflict. Was the victory (defeat) of the conflict "meritorious" according to the sociocybernetic theory? You can analyze that in a given period of time [1776;1944]. Statistic data used for the analyses are based on this theory. The prediction accuracy depends on the the data reliability. The data concerning 18th and 19th centuries are much less accurate than the later ones. For that reason differences (sometimes even up to a few years) between theoretical results and equivalent dates of historical events may appear. The earlier the period of time they concern the bigger the differences are.
	You will soon realize that when the quotient of the power of the Red and the power of the Blue exceeds 2, the Red will win the conflict. Similarly, when the quotient is smaller than 0,5 they will lose, but if the quotient is between 0,5 - 2,0 then the conflict will be won by the coalition, which earlier increased its power in the previous year. Data to the program are - counted with modern sociocybernetic method - figures illustrating the influence of particular countries on international control processes, especially this part of the country potential that could have been used in its actions versus other countries.
	Check all possible alternatives. For example you may check the relation between the power of France and the power of Prussia. At the beginning France was more powerful. Try to find a year when Prussia was able to win the war. When they could attack and win. Keep searching...until you find the year when J.Piłsudski was to offer France a preventive war. Historians cannot decide if it really was this way. But we know that the French power was satisfactory (but only at that moment !) to defeat the Third Reich. Maybe will find other critical points of the history unknown to the historians. If you only manage to do it let us know . Let us also know when you disagree with the results you obtained. Perhaps there are mistakes, but nobody has spotted them so far.
	If you take a look at the Polish-Soviet war in 1920, the programme will announce the defeat of Poland... if one coalition was composed only of Poland and the other only of Russia. Actually, the Russian potential was weakened by the participation in the civil war. When we consider the war between Russia and Japan 1904-1905, the program will announce the victory of Russia. If you don't know why , ask historians... Be careful! When you, for example, analyze the situation of Germany in 1941, you should increase the German potential at least by the potential of Poland, the Czech Republic and Austria - as their potential fully contributed to Germany. Victor Suworow (Vladimir Bogdanowicz Rezun), a Russian writer and historian living in the West, who confessed that he co-operated with the GRU, in several of his works proves that Stalin intended to attack Germany (and the whole Europe) in the summer 1941 but Hitler anticipated his actions. That's how Suworow explains the initial ill-success of the Russian army (production of offensive weapon, concentration of the military troops in the border area, lack of fortifications etc.). His books are worth reading. Maybe Suworow is wrong but if he is right and Stalin had aggressive intentions indeed - now you, thanks to the Virtual History, are able to estimate Stalin's chances depending on such factors as the US access to the war - yes, or not; if yes, when etc.).
	The Virtual History is based on the Cybernetic Theory of International Conflicts developed by a Polish cybernetic, Józef Kossecki, in the late seventies and published in his two books: Reciprocal Steering Interaction of Countries As independent Systems - Kielce 1980 (this book was individually awarded by the Ministry of Education in 1981) and Social Cybernetics- Warsaw 1981. Due to censorship the analyses of international relations included in these two books were suspended in the year 1945. Analyses of following periods and Forecasts were presented only in his academic lectures and two scientific conferences. However the conference organisers were not allowed to publish them! His Forecasts anticipated the Third World War or the collapse of the Soviet block to take place at the beginning of the nineties.
	The programme (or rather the applet) is not convenient. You may pick up a programme which will facilitate creating coalitions up to year 1995. You will be able to go inside the processes governing the history course. You can find out for example: Who would win the Third World War, Did the Soviet Union have to collapse? Would a revolution in Poland make the Soviets to intervene? Requirements: PC, Windows 95 or newer. Click here, if you are interested in that programme - now free.